Data Sources & Scoring Methodology

Every RAL Market Scout score is built from authoritative public data and our own residential-assisted-living market models. This page explains what we measure, where the data comes from, and how the scores are calculated — so you can trust the numbers behind your decisions.

Last updated July 2026.

The five dimensions

Each market is scored on five dimensions, every one benchmarked on a 0–10 scale against national norms, then combined into a single composite. The dimensions are weighted evenly, so no one factor can make or break a market on its own.

The supply model

Rather than comparing a market to a national average, we estimate how much assisted-living and memory-care capacity a market actually needs to stay healthily occupied, then compare that to the capacity that already exists. The balance between what a market needs and what it has sets the 0–10 supply score and an Underserved / Balanced / Saturated label. ★ How we calculate that need and apply it to each property is our own model — the underlying inputs are public; the synthesis and the local reconciliation are ours.

Where a state licenses many tiny adult-family or foster-care homes that aren't true assisted living, we normalize those out so supply is comparable from state to state.

Supply confidence — how much local data backs the read

The data that feeds supply isn't published to the same depth in every state, so each property report carries a supply confidence level that reflects how much local data stands behind it:

• High — our state benchmark is corroborated by our own licensed-home roster with bed counts.
• Moderate — we have the benchmark and the roster, but per-home bed counts are still being captured.
• Not scored — in the rare case a benchmark isn't available, supply is set aside and the other dimensions carry the score.

A report always delivers; the confidence label simply tells you how firm the supply read is for that location.

Beyond the score — what a report shows

Alongside the five-dimension score, each report puts the market in context:

• Competition by home size. The licensed assisted-living supply nearby, split into small (≤16-bed) residential homes, mid-size, and big-box — so you see how crowded your segment is, not just the overall count.
• State ranking & nearby markets. Every ZIP is ranked against the others in its state, and when a market reads thin we surface nearby ZIPs that score higher for residential assisted living.
• Senior-density map. A census-tract map of where the 75+ population actually concentrates around the location — the neighborhoods that drive move-ins — drawn over the local street map.
• Regulatory & labor. The small-home licensing pathway for the state, plus local caregiver and CNA wage benchmarks, so the operating realities sit on the same page as the opportunity.

How scores are calculated

For each dimension we combine its underlying indicators into a single 0–10 rating, benchmarked against U.S. markets so a score means the same thing everywhere. The five dimensions are then weighted evenly into the composite, so no single factor can carry or sink a market on its own. The headline Market Opportunity read is deliberately weighted differently — it leans on the two dimensions that most determine whether a home fills: local demand and how tight existing supply is, with demand carrying the greater weight, because strong senior demand against limited supply is where a new home reaches stabilized occupancy fastest. Property-level (Site Intelligence) reports measure demand, supply and referral on the real distance from the address — typically 10- and 25-mile rings — not a whole ZIP or county average. Markets with too few seniors 75+ fall below a viability floor and aren't rated as opportunities, so thinly-populated areas don't look “wide open” simply because little has been built there. The model is a current-year snapshot; time-sensitive inputs are re-baselined annually. The specific weights, thresholds and formulas are proprietary. Figures are directional market intelligence to guide diligence, not a property appraisal.

Where the data comes from

RAL Market Scout is built on three kinds of trusted data, refreshed on a regular cadence:

• Verified government data — established federal sources such as the U.S. Census Bureau, CMS, and the CDC, for senior demographics, health and acuity, and care capacity.
• Licensed commercial datasets — used under license for supply, property and labor-market detail.
• Permission-based data — including CareScout Cost of Care pricing benchmarks, used with permission and cited wherever rates appear.

Our scoring models, weightings and proprietary market indices are built in-house on top of these inputs. The specific sources, weights, thresholds and formulas that combine them are proprietary.

★ What's original to RAL Market Scout

• The small-home competitive set. We gather and normalize each state's assisted-living license roster to isolate the 6–16 bed residential segment — the true RAL competitive set that national datasets miss — with bed counts and license status.
• Real parcel-distance measurement. Every demand, supply and referral figure in a property report is measured from the exact address, not a ZIP or county average.
• The occupancy-derived supply model applied locally, with Underserved / Balanced / Saturated bands and a supply-confidence level.
• Referral scoring on patient volume — hospital, skilled-nursing, hospice and home-health capacity per senior — surfaced as a named, contactable partner directory.
• The state-by-state RAL regulatory matrix built for the small-home licensing pathway.
• The five-dimension composite and Market Opportunity read, including acuity-weighted demand and the staffing-wage reference in the pro-forma.
• Annual re-baselining of every time-sensitive input so the score stays current without forecasting guesswork.